Thomas Robert Malthus
An Investigation of the Cause of the Present High Price of Provisions
(1800)
By the Author of the Essay on the Principle of Population.
London, Printed for J. Johnson, in St. Paul's-Church-Yard, by
Davis, Taylor, and Wilks, Chancery-Lane. 1800.
by Thomas Robert Malthus
1800
High Price of Provisions: An Investigation of the Cause
Among the many causes that have been assigned of the present high
price of provisions, I am much inclined to suspect, that the
principal one has hitherto escaped detection; at least, in the
discussions on the subject, either in print or conversation,
which have fallen within my knowledge, the cause, which I
conceive to have operated most strongly towards increasing the
price of the necessaries of life, has not yet been suggested.
There are some disorders, which, though they scarcely admit of a
cure, or even of any considerable mitigation, are still capable
of being made greatly worse. In such misfortunes it is of great
importance to know the desperate nature of the disease. The next
step to the alleviation of pain, is the bearing it with
composure, and not aggravating it by impatience and irritation.
It cannot admit of a doubt with persons of sense and
information, that, during the last year, there was a scarcity, to
a certain extent, of all sorts of grain; but it must be at the
same time acknowledged, that the price was higher than the degree
of that scarcity would at first sight appear to warrant.
In the summer of 1799, in the course of a northern tour, I
passed through Sweden. There was at that time a general dearth of
corn throughout the country, owing to a long drought the
preceding year. In the province of Värmland, adjoining to Norway,
it approached almost to a famine, and the lower classes of people
suffered most severe distress. At the time we were passing
through that part of the country, which was in July, they were
reduced to two most miserable substitutes for bread; one, made of
the inner bark of the fir, and the other, of the common sorrel
dried, and powdered. These substances, though made into the usual
shape of their rye bread, had no affinity to it whatever in
taste, and but very little, I believe, in nourishment, as the
effects of this miserable food were but too visible in their
pallid and unhealthy countenances.
There could be little doubt, that the degree of scarcity then
prevailing in that part of Sweden, was considerably greater than
any we have hitherto experienced here; and yet, as far as we
could learn, the price of rye, which is the grain principally
used for bread, had not risen above double its usual average;
whereas in this country last year, in a scarcity, that must be
acknowledged to be very greatly inferior in degree, wheat rose to
above three times its former price.
The continuation of extraordinary high prices, after a
harvest that was at one time looked forward to as abundant, has
contributed still more to astonish and perplex the public mind.
Many men of sense have joined in the universal cry of the common
people, that there must be roguery somewhere; and the general
indignation has fallen upon monopolizers, forestallers, and
regraters - words, that are vented from every mouth with fearful
execrations, and are applied indiscriminately to all middle men
whatever, to every kind of trader that goes between the grower of
the commodity and the consumer.
This popular clamour, headed by the Lord Chief Justice, and
enforced throughout the country by the instructions of the grand
juries, must make every reflecting mind tremble for the future
supply of our markets. I cannot but think therefore, that I
should do an acceptable service, if I could succeed in accounting
for the present high price of the necessaries of life, without
criminating a class of men, who, I believe, have been accused
unjustly, and who, every political economist must know, are
absolutely necessary in the complicated machinery that
distributes the provisions and other commodities of a large
nation.
I ought first to premise, however, that I am not interested
in this question, further than as a lover of truth, and a
well-wisher to my country. I have no sort of connection whatever
with any of these middle men or great farmers, who are now the
objects of public indignation: and, as an individual with a small
fixed income, I am certainly. among that class of persons on whom
the high price of provisions must fall the heaviest.
To proceed to the point: I am most strongly inclined to
suspect, that the attempt in most parts of the kingdom to
increase the parish allowances in proportion to the price of
corn, combined with the riches of the country, which have enabled
it to proceed as far as it has done in this attempt, is,
comparatively speaking, the sole cause, which has occasioned the
price of provisions in this country to rise so much higher than
the degree of scarcity would seem to warrant, so much higher than
it would do in any other country where this cause did not
operate.
It may appear, perhaps, at first, to the reader, that this
cause is inadequate to the effect we experience; but, if he will
kindly allow me a few minutes of patient and candid attention, I
hope I shall be able to convince him, that it is not only
adequate to produce the present high price of provisions of which
we complain; but, admitting a real scarcity, that the attempt to
carry it actually into execution, might raise the quartern loaf
before the expiration of a year, to as many shillings as it is
now pence.
Adam Smith has most justly stated, that the actual price at
which a commodity is sold, is compounded of its natural price,
the price at which it can be brought to market, allowing the
usual profit in times of moderate plenty, and the proportion of
the supply to the demand. When any commodity is scarce, its
natural price is necessarily forgotten, and its actual price is
regulated by the excess of the demand above the supply.
Let us suppose a commodity in great request by fifty people,
but of which, from some failure in its production, there is only
sufficient to supply forty. If the fortieth man from the top have
two shillings which he can spend in this commodity, and the
thirty nine above him, more, in various proportions, and the ten
below, all less, the actual price of the article, according to
the genuine principles of trade, will be two shillings. If more
be asked, the whole will not be sold, because there are only
forty who have as much as two shillings to spend in the article;
and there is no reason for asking less, because the whole may be
disposed of at that sum.
Let us suppose, now, that somebody gives the ten poor men,
who were excluded, a shilling apiece. The whole fifty can now
offer two shillings, the price which was before asked. According
to every genuine principle of fair trading, the commodity must
immediately rise. If it do not, I would ask, upon what principle
are ten, out of the fifty who are all able to offer two
shillings, to be rejected? For still, according to the
supposition. there is only enough for forty. The two shillings of
a poor man are just as good as the two shillings of a rich one;
and, if we interfere to prevent the commodity from rising out of
the reach of the poorest ten, whoever they may be, we must toss
up, draw lots, raffle, or fight, to determine who are to be
excluded. It would be beyond my present purpose, to enter into
the question whether any of these modes would be more eligible,
for the distribution of the commodities of a country, than the
sordid distinction of money; but certainly, according to the
customs of all civilized and enlightened nations, and according
to every acknowledged principle of commercial dealing, the price
must be allowed to rise to that point which will put it beyond
the power of ten out of the fifty to purchase. This point will,
perhaps, be half a crown or more, which will now.become the price
of the commodity. Let another shilling apiece be given to the
excluded ten: all will now be able to offer half a crown. The
price must in consequence immediately rise to three shillings or
more, and so on toties quoties.
In the progress of this operation the ten excluded would not
be always entirely the same. The richest of the ten first
excluded, would probably be raised above the poorest of the first
forty. Small changes of this kind must take place. The additional
allowances to the poorest, and the weight of the high prices on
those above them, would tend to level ...
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